Outlook for 2024

As part of our service to clients and candidates, Link Personnel Services is happy to publish our annual salary surveys for 2024. We publish our surveys around this time of year to measure the impact that January, traditionally a very busy month for hiring, has on pay across Ireland.

In honesty, January 2024 has not moved the dial very much, however looking back on surveys since 2021, we have seen significant growth in wages across all sectors. Of course, there are many reasons for this growth, and it is by no means uniform across sectors, but inflation and a very tight labour market over that time have been the main drivers of higher pay. Looking back on the last number of years, Link Personnel has accurately predicted wage growth in the economy, with growth in 2023 (close to 4%) falling comfortably within our estimate of 2.5-5%, made this time last year. What about growth in 2024? Our estimate of wage growth of between 2.5-4.5% for 2024 is similar to last year. It is underpinned by a near 10% rise in the minimum wage, by sticky inflation (at least for the first half of the year), and by a healthy level of activity in the labour market, albeit at a more muted level than in 2023.

Hybrid work policies, which seemed a fanciful idea mere years ago, and firmly bedded down this time last year, are up for discussion again in advanced economies, including Ireland. While some employers are seeking to bring employees back to base more often, we see that as a counter productive step in securing staff. Salary is a necessary, but not sufficient tool to attract candidates, while benefits, including hybrid or remote work, remain a powerful tool of attraction for employers when it comes to finding the right people. Who gains the upper hand in the tussle over hybrid work, may depend on the course of the economy over the next 12-24 months. Continued strength will mean candidates hold the upper hand.

As with last year, the only certainty is that the economy and the labour market will be uncertain in 2024. 2023 saw many major Western economies go into, or skirt, a recession. The eagle eyed will remember that Ireland fell into a recession last year, but it certainly didn’t “feel” like a recession. The Irish economy has remained remarkably resilient despite obvious challenges, as well as shortcomings around infrastructure. Despite slowdowns in hiring in some sectors, overall employment growth was noteworthy, and by the end of Q3 2023, 2.65m people were employed in the state. We don’t see 2024 being a bumper year for jobs growth, but equally we don’t see particularly dark clouds on the horizon. Assuming Central Banks don’t do anything unexpected, and excepting any 2008 style surprises, 2024 should be steady as she goes.

Link Personnel intends to increase its staffing levels this year to take advantage of new opportunities, and has already implemented new processes we believe will help find the right candidates for our clients, and the right roles for our candidates throughout this year. We stand ready to provide our help, expertise and analysis to candidates and clients alike and we look forward to working with you throughout the rest of 2024 and beyond.

Please feel free to contact me to discuss the market in general, or your industry specifically

Cormac Spencer
Director

Direct: +353 1 845 4651
cormac@linkpersonnel.ie